Monday, March 19, 2012

Building under high uncertainty

I really appreciated the readings on building a strong vision and discovery driven planning within a context of high uncertainty. The two compliment each other nicely and seem especially relevant to my DiasporaConnect idea.

On the one hand, I have a clear mission of social investment and making remittances easier and less expensive that will not change. But the competitive landscape within which all of this is supposed to function has been traditionally monopolized and is currently pretty volatile due to the breakthroughs in mobile money transfers. Building a vision, based on a core ideology of social good and an envisioned future where mobile money transfers dominate and DC owns a chunk of the market (which is no longer dominated by corporate giants like Western Union), will be key to forging ahead.

On the other hand, global money transfer is a market with an extremely high assumptions-to-knowledge ratio. My earlier suspicions of this were confirmed when doing the research for the feasibility plan. There is some data on Foreign-born populations in the U.S., some information on remittance inflows into Africa, and bits and pieces on the relative market shares of various types of money transfers. But there is not coherent source of data linking these three points together as the importance of remittances is just now being fully appreciated. The lack of concrete data means that everything from revenue structure to projected budgets must be based on estimations and assumptions, which, as the second article points out, can be dangerous when projections and results are expected to be closely aligned.

The discovery-based planning framework provides a nice guide to framing, figuring out the realistic competitive benchmarks that one should adhere to and differentiate from, specifying deliverables, testing assumptions, managing milestones, and minimizing risky investments within this high uncertainty context. I see this as the next phase beyond the basic feasibility plans developed, which, I know in my case, is riddled with unknowns and assumptions.

To put these two tools, the vision and the discovery-driven planning, into a corny, but hopefully practical analogy: the vision is like the north star or lighthouse or setting sun providing a natural compass and the discovery-driven planning is like the map, providing various flexible routes to reach one's destination. It would be interesting to read a case study involving both of these concepts.

Although these concepts are not explicitly outlined here, this is a case that I think offers a nice illustration of both a strong vision and discovery-driven planning at work:
http://www.africanleadershipacademy.org/sites/default/files/sites/default/files/inline-image-uploads/Case_E01_Wanja_Michuki_Highland_Tea.pdf

The publisher, The African Leadership Academy, is also a great social enterprise, worthwhile checking out: http://www.africanleadershipacademy.org/


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