Monday, March 28, 2011

Bottom up is key

Yes, this is my main conclusion: Bottom up is key. Everything else mentioned in the articles revolve around it.

I cannot agree more that throwing arbitrary assumptions around is not very insightful (e.g. even if tap into 1% of the total market...)

Another key point that was emphasized was being lean and staffing "hungry" people. It was argued that a dream team is not necessary. Although I see their point, I am not 100% convinced. I agree that you don't want to bring people who you clash with on a personality level just because they are experts in their field. But there is value in having the "right" executive team. I also remember from another article that team comes first and idea second... Open-ended discussion here...

Also, I liked the idea of starting as a service business. Do some consulting work to generate some cash flow to keep the engine running and also get more hands-on experience by doing so and improve your value proposition with the gained insight.

I'd like to conclude with uncertainty modeling. Discovery-driven planning is all about it. I think all entrepreneurs should have a model of some form, preferably a spreadsheet and a fancy software (@RISK, Crystal Ball, Analytica, etc.) installed to illustrate how uncertain assumptions affect your bottom line and constantly revisit the model. One thing I learned in my research career is that deterministic assumptions do not lead you to meaningful results too often.

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