Saturday, April 2, 2011
Managing the Uncertainty
This article maps out a disciplined approach for entrepreneurs to manage the uncertainty. There are a few steps that are helpful for me to test the uncertainty of my venture.
Formulate a Working Hypothesis
Identify deal killers and big bets
Deal killers: responses from competitors, lack of donations coming through
Big bets: alliance with doctors, partnerships with local health organizations and agencies
I need to watch out reactions from competitors. It could mean a lucrative business for insurance companies, deprivation of donations from other not-for-profit organizations, over-occupation of resources from hospitals or government agencies, or others. Anything that does not work out well with supposed “partners” of the venture may turn to be agony that they hold against the venture. To tackle this, I need to rely on my big bets, which are doctors that serve as glue that connects the venture with other organizations. Also, good nurture of partnerships is also important, which can be attained through arrangement of “win-win” situation.
Assemble Resources
Raise enough money to fund the next round of experiments-The venture relies on donations from the public, so it can only begin its mission when donations are coming in. In my case and in many other social enterprises’ examples that depend on contributions, it is more challenging to draw VC’s investments, and thus harder to raise “enough” money to fund the experiment. Instead of waiting endlessly for “enough” money to come in, why not start when a certain level of capital is raised, so that the influence of venture can be illustrated to the public and more people would know about it? In return, more funds will come in and bigger influence will be exerted to the needed.
Design and Run Experiments
Thanks to so many previous articles that stress the importance of starting small, I would not find this point surprising. And thanks to Professor Zak for pointing out the importance of concentration and focus for social enterprise.
I will start my venture in Pittsburgh, testing all the uncertainty including known unknown uncertainties, e.g. reactions from competitors, sustainability of funds, customer attraction and retention, feasibility of partnerships, and viability of business model. Also more uncertainties that I do not know that are unknown.
Back to question on resources. For for-profit ventures which have VC, it is a relatively direct fact that how much money has been raised and how much is needed to keep the experiment running for a year. However, for social ventures that bear many characteristics of not-for-profit, i.e. donation supported, how much is “enough”? How long should entrepreneur should wait till it is relatively “enough” for the experiment?
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Bottom up is key
Launching a risky project
1. 1. Decide what level of achievement counts as success or failure. This to me entails setting small short term goals to achieve and gradually growing to bigger long term goals. I many of our projects, I have noticed that many of us have suggested pilot projects as a test to begin our projects.
2. 2. Incorporate sociopolitical forces: This involves looking at all factors that have a possibility of affecting your business venture, these factors might be social, political or economic factors.
3. 3. Keep costs low in the beginning and plan for scalability has: Professor Zak mentioned this to us many times in class, to always keep our cost low at the beginning, starting with our pilot projects and achieving successful short term goals initially and learn from that before we grown to bigger projects.
4. 4. Establish specific measurable goals of what you plan to provide: This goes hand in hand with the points above, setting out short term goals that are measurable.
5. 5. Preplan a realistic exit strategy: As mentioned, all projects are risky and there is the possibility that the project might not just work out. The point is how are you going to exit the market/industry if and when the project does not succeed. Preparing an exit strategic would also help save costs if the project is failing, having an exist strategy would help you better prepared.
6. 6. Anticipate unintended consequences: As stated in the article, this is very difficult to do, but what for my project, I am also thinking of what could possible go wrong and the actions I would take if there are any unintended consequences. I have created a decision tree, where I consider every possible unintended consequences and the actions I hope to take .and even beyond this, i know that there are other consequences that might occur.
Finally, Learn then invest.
Framing for Social Ventures
As indicated by this week’s reading, it is important to implement discovery-driven planning when embarking on ventures that have no historical examples on which to rely. When entering such unchartered territory, one should implement six techniques: framing, competitive market reality specification, specification of deliverables, assumptions testing, managing to milestones, and parsimony (Cooper 2008).
I was particularly interested in the framing technique, especially given my assumption that framing for a social venture would be different than framing for a traditional business. My research led me to an article that stressed the importance of using cultural framing to successfully launch social initiatives in established businesses.
Although the article’s premise of starting social initiatives within established companies is not 100% correlated to our purpose of starting social ventures, the article does contain information that can be of use to us and is overall a good read. Interested parties can locate the article here:
http://appreciativeinquiry.case.edu/uploads/2003%20AME.pdf
Has anyone read this or something of similar context in the past? If so, please share with me your opinion. I am interested in learning more about the subject.
Sources
Cooper, Robert. "Technical Note: Putting Discovery-Driven Planning to Work." Kellogg School of Management, 2008: 2.
Implementation & Planning
The two web articles one by Guy Kawasaki and the other one by Kimberly Weisul offered practical and sound advice on implementing a business plan. Some of the things which I thought were particularly interesting were:
- Focus on Cash Flow and not profitability: Focusing on keeping the organisation running paying up bills on time is important in the first few months of launching a social venture. At the end of the day if your company does not have enough money to pay off its bill / suppliers , not only spoiling the reputation of the firm but also loosing trust among partners.
- Forecasting from bottom up : The paper on Discovery driven planning also stresses on the same point through out the paper. I think its one common mistake all entrepreneurs make is to plan from the top-down. I thought this was a brilliant suggestion because it helps us in planning and forecasting better and not overestimating profits or expenses.
- Establish specific measurable goals of what you aim to provide: The Kellogg article also stressed on this in the Framing section. Understanding the business model and being able to predict the unit of business plays a key role in this goal. Also being able to relate it to the cost and architecture of the proposed business model would help to plan financially the financial business model. I think the business unit for my venture would be a service contract between the school and my firm because we will not only offer our time but also share our knowledge and skill set.
- Forget the "Proven" team: I strongly agree with the author on this one. As I have notice my family firm when executives having lot of experience who have worked with fortune 500 firms have been hired , they tend to have certain limitations at the kind of work they can do. Sometimes the best employees are the most unexpected - students have the passion and drive to perform well and go the extra mile to deliver results.
Managing Development Projects with Discovery-Driven Planning
Discovery-driven Planning: A MUST read for new entrepreneurs
One of the things that's always bothered me about the way I've seen traditional (if there is such a thing) business development work is that it's exactly like the "conventional planning" referenced in the article--it is expected that people put together things like financial projections when there is very little to base the models on and then write them up/present them with as straight a face as possible. Everyone knows that the projections it won't work out like that, but for some reason we keep doing it.
What I liked about this article was that it was based on a more common sense approach. Figure out what you know. Write down your assumptions and what you think the implications of them are and then test them. Build and update your plan as new information is discovered.
Testing assumptions is what I'm doing with onlyinpgh now that I have a developer working with me on it, and it's been enlightening. There are a ton of things we're discovering about available data, how to put it together, interface issues, etc that I had no idea about prior to getting into it and that I wish I could have discovered months ago. Based on these I'm considering changing my primary business model, and it's all because we're only now really testing assumptions that I've had for a long time.
The best thing an entrepreneur that's investigating a new idea can do is identifying assumptions and developing a plan to test them. What assumptions do you need to test?
Sunday, March 27, 2011
The Joy of Bootstrapping?
Discovery-Driven Planning
Strapping the Boots
- Forecast from the bottom up: figuring a more likely (and realistic number) compared to how many total African Americans in Pittsburgh would be more realistic goal. First thinking of my target audience, I assumed that it would be the age span of this population. However, to successfully serve a particular population, I must be more specific. I must successfully serve just a portion of this target audience before I can expand to serve another section.
- Under staff: In developing my building block from last week, I unintentionally developed an organization model that was too large than what I originally had planned. This article made me re-think the organization model that I developed. Now with this insight that was provided, I plan re-organize my model to reflect a more appropriate form.
Taking from the article "Launching A Risky Project", what is the best way to "scale up" with The People's Station?
Specific location decision as part of implementation plan
One aspect of my venture that I have yet to finalize is how I will implement the transition to a permanent space as my venture begins to grow. In terms of affordability, Lowell offers some of the best access to low price commercial real estate in Massachusetts. Alongside support from other non-profits, there are also a number of resources for supporting location decisions.
The Lowell Office of Economic Development offers a commercial real estate database which will be very helpful in finding the right space to build my venture’s first permanent repair garage (http://www.lowellma.gov/depts/dpd/services/econdev/sitefinder). Although there is very little open space for building a new building, that probably wouldn’t be a financially viable route for our first dedicated site. Lowell has a number of large, vacant industrial complexes which are relatively affordable. The price of commercial real estate varies from $1.25-2 per square foot per month depending on the location and access to other resources. A repair garage which doesn’t need to interface directly with high paying customers should be able to occupy a space on the lower end of this price range.
As a more long term alternative, Lowell also offers advantageous support for permanently redeveloping a space. The MassDevelopment Brownfields Redevelopment Fund provides interest-free funding for environmental clean up and rehabilitation of industrial sites. This is supported by both the local government, and the EPA at a national level. If the right space is acquired it’s possible to get an interest free loan of up to $50,000 to support a project. Where this funding takes place on a case-by-case basis, it is very likely that a carefully constructed redevelopment plan could gain access to these funds. http://www.lowellma.gov/depts/dpd/services/econdev/brownfield
There are currently 52 local sites that were identified as vacant or underutilized and essentially have funding preapproval from the original redevelopment plan passed in 1996. If an interest free loan is not approved, there is also a $30 million allocation of state funding that provides favorable, low interest loans for redevelopment in the Lowell area. This will be a major consideration in further honing my location decision. One particular site of interest is a 900 space rebuilt parking garage with attached commercial real estate. This could be a very valuable resource is a partnership allowed for spaces to be rented for storing vehicles or providing them on a rental basis to clients.
Writing the social venture business plan
http://www.jeffreyrobinsonphd.com/socialventureplan.pdf
Testing Previous Goals and Assumptions
Framing
For a social venture, I would set a profit margin at 5%, or a profit of $100,000. It is a proposed goal and should be a decision that my management team agrees upon to be achievable and good enough. For future framing, I would use its surplus level as an estimated basis. To obtain it, revenue level should be at least $2 million. That leaves allowable costs of $1,900,000. If setting ROA at 5% as well, allowable investment on assets is expected to be $2,000,000.
According to benchmark on a similar organization with similar size, its costs on Administrative and Fundraising are $270,000. It means that $1,730,000 is left to purchase insurance policies for the uninsured. Given an average of policy cost the venture is able to get for customers is $300 per month, it implies that the number of families that we can help is 480 families. Thus 480 families per year is the goal for my market penetration.
On the revenue side, the $2,000,000 revenue goal is consisted of $51,900 of commissions (estimated based on a commission rate of 3%), and $1,948,100. It says that my venture needs to raise a fund level of $1,948,100 to deliver these products and to cover other expenses.
Checking Market Reality
From market research, it is found that there are 13,820 people are involuntarily uninsured in Pittsburgh. The targeted market segment is Married with Children group which has a size of 1,960. The 480 families, or 1,508 people, accounts for 77% of the market segment and 11% of the Pittsburgh insured market.
In terms of donation size, Pittsburgh has a median contribution of $4,591,492. The goal of contribution level required for my venture is 58% lower than the median level, which is achievable for a start-up social venture like mine.
Documenting Assumptions
Assumption Number Assumption Type of Assumption Range
1 Profit margin Internal ±10%
2 Profit level Internal ±10%
3 ROA level Internal ±10%
4 Administrative cost Internal ±30%
5 Fundraising cost Internal ±25%
6 Average family insurance cost External ±40%
7 Average family size External ±10%
8 Commission rate Internal ±100%
9 Uninsured rate in Pittsburgh External ±20%
10 Size of Married with Children External ±25%
11 Average donation External ±100%
This exercise is so important that it fundamentally changes some of the targets that I set previously for the venture, e.g. number of customers served. This new estimation is more realistic and bottom-line supported. On the article of the Art of Bootstrapping, I particularly like two points that the author proposes, i.e. Position against the leader and understaff. They tie to the characteristics of my venture. I could use his advice and position my venture as “offering free Highmark like insurance”. People would be attracted to it given their familiarity of Highmark products and the catchword “free”. I also think understaff is necessary for my venture. The large amount of donation required to offer products for customers leave me little leeway in covering huge administrative costs. Potential people that I bring onboard have passion in what the venture provides and will preferably provide volunteering services.
However, one thing I do not agree with is “Forget the ‘proven’ team.” It is really a “it depends” case. A management team with needed skills is extremely important for my venture, especially in its initial period. I need this team to create a “buzz” in the community, establish partnerships, solicit support from donors and attract customers. All of these are critical enough to make the venture succeed or fail. I cannot risk losing any of these battles by cutting a short cut to offer a small pay for people who lack necessary skills.
This week’s readings along with previous articles all suggest that the venture should start small and keep costs low in the beginning stage. There seems to be a dilemma with regard to getting the right team to make the venture work and cost it takes to get these people on board and retain them. My question is: for NPO type of social venture, what are options available for attracting and retaining experts on the team? Material incentives, aligning with mission and others?
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Discovery Driven Planning and Bootstrapping
This weeks readings intrigued me. The Kellogg article titled, ‘Technical Note: Discovery-Driven Planning’ opened up new avenues in thought. From my previous experience in the industry, I have often taken part in planning when the outcomes are known and the means to achieve the outcome are known from previous experiences. So this article was an eye-opener. What were the main take home messages for me?
- Framing: This was something novel to me. In my initial financial plans, I had made the exact mistake that the authors (and the web article on bootstrapping) said most people would make. I assumed that I would target a population of 1% and worked my way down, basing my entire sales strategy and financials on that assumptions. And there was no way I could validate this assumptions without paying the price. The article (and the web article too) indicated that one must set a target profit level and then back-calculate the number of units that I must sell in order to meet these goals. Excellent! Eureka moment!
- Checking Market Reality: This was pretty much on things I already knew and had incorporated. However important questions were raised by the authors in this article.
- Which group do you want to target?
- Compare your product/Service against your competitors using useful rations (key ratios).
- In the case of Kao, they had a competitive edge over the competitors in the experience with chemicals. This enabled them to offer their product at a much lower price. Underlines the need to develop an expertise area which competitors cannot copy.
- Specifying Deliverables: ‘As you create your deliverables specifications, document your assumptions’. I thought this sentence to be prudent. The example of the multi- million dollar company was also very indicative of the errors we can do in finding numbers that match our analysis. This must be avoided. Remember that you are trying all ways to find faults in your analysis (this is much better than learning on the job).
- Document Assumptions: It is easy to get lost and forget what the assumptions were in the first place. So the authors suggest that one re-visits the assumptions and check if they still hold good –> Which sort of build into the next point of Planning to learn at key milestones.
The other article titled, ‘The Art of Bootstrapping’ was equally insightful.
I found the following points in the article go ‘click’ in my head.
- Focus on Cash flow and not profitability. Short billing cycles keeps the cash flowing. I have seen family members choke and have to close their businesses for lack of free flowing funds and I recognize the importance of this. So how can I ensure that my products have short billing cycles? What about providing financing options for my customers? Will that affect my cash flow? These are things I have started to thing about.
- Forecast from Bottom Up: Sort of overlaps with the previous article. But this point cannot be overstated. A mistake I made! And glad to see that I have corrected it now.
- Ship and then Test: I do not agree with this at all. I don’t think sacrificing the company’s image can be worth anything. It destroys the long term objectives. Especially for my company, which deals with rural households where pennies matter and trust is the altar of God. So I ignore this judiciously.
- Go Direct: Yes. Makes sense. But what if there is no infrastructure to do so? This would imply the dire need of tying up with local partners who understand the local business topology.
- Take the red pill – Love the parallel! Do we have a choice?
So in short, make assumptions on the reliable data. Do not find data to fit your assumptions. Wok bottom up, Bootstrap and always take the red pill!
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Monday, March 21, 2011
Leadership vs. Management
This week’s readings provided information on how to successfully build capacity within nonprofit organizations. One aspect of doing so was the ability to foster both effective leadership and effective management within the organization. Since the definitions of these two factors are often mistakenly intertwined, I decided to focus my blog for this week on the differences between leadership and management and how to be successful in both areas.
One key difference is that “leaders have followers” and “managers have subordinates” (Changing Minds n.d.). In other words, leaders are responsible for inspiring their followers to reach company visions and managers are responsible with handling the day to day tasks that go along with implementing said visions.
These differences are further explained within the following sites:
· Changing Minds. Org: Leadership vs. Management - http://changingminds.org/disciplines/leadership/articles/manager_leader.htm#lea
· CoachforGrowth.com: Leadership vs. Management: What are the Characteristics of a Leader and a Manager - http://coach4growth.com/leadership-skills/leadership-vs-management-what-are-the-characteristics-of-a-leader-and-a-manager
· Practical Management: Leadership Vs Management: "Lead subordinates, Manage projects " - http://www.practical-management.com/Leadership-Development/Leadership-Vs-Management.html
Take a look at the readings and let me know what you think. Do you agree with the stated differences between leadership and management? If not, what is your opinion?
Source: Changing Minds. n.d. http://changingminds.org/disciplines/leadership/articles/manager_leader.htm#lea (accessed 03 21, 2011).